| |
VA2OM > SOLAR 06.07.26 11:32l 121 Lines 5980 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12486_VE2PKT
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<K7EK<F1UBL<K1AJD<VE3CGR<VE6NAS<
VE2PKT
Sent: 260706/0915Z 12486@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 0131 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 June - 05 July 2026
Solar activity was at moderate levels on 29 Jun with one M-class
flare (below M5), high levels on 30 Jun-05 Jul with 42 M-class
flares below M5, 5 above M5, and 2 X-class flares in total across
the six days. Five of the M-flares came from Region 4478 (S05, L=77,
class/area=Fki/1550 on 01 Jul), four from Region 4480 (S16, L=100,
class/area=Esi/150 on 02 Jul), and three from Region 4475 (S09,
L=129, class/area=Eki/250 on 25 Jun). All of the remaining M-flares,
plus the X1.1 at 30/2050 UTC, came from Region 4479 (N17, L=96,
class/area=Eki/720 on 02 Jul). The largest flare of the period, an
X1.3 at 04/2041 UTC, came from Region 4482 (S08, L=302,
class/area=Cso/80 on 05 Jul).
The X1.3 was associated with a tenflare (peak of 890 sfu), a Type II
radio sweep (estimated velocity 931 km/s), and a Type IV radio
sweep; the resulting CME was first observed in GOES/CCOR1 at roughly
04/2245 UTC. Analysis indicated a trajectory behind Earth’s
orbit with no impacts at Earth expected. The X1.1 was associated
with a tenflare (peak of 410 sfu), a Type II radio sweep (estimated
velocity 1496 km/s), and a Type IV radio sweep. This flare produced
a full halo CME that became visible in CCOR1 at approximately
30/2145 UTC, and modeling indicated an arrival at Earth early 03
Jul.
Several M-flares were also associated with CMEs. A long duration
M4.2/sf at 02/0156 UTC was associated with a tenflare (peak of 410
sfu) and a resulting CME was observed in LASCO C2 at approximately
02/0236 UTC; an M1.3/1n from 01/1008 also produced a CME (first
observed in CCOR1 at approximately 01/1400 UTC), but modeling
indicated that it would be overtaken by the M4.2 CME, with a joint
arrival at Earth late 05 Jul/early 06 Jul. An M6.7 at 03/1811 UTC
was associated with a tenflare (peak of 160 sfu) and a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 1831 km/s), with a resulting CME observed
in C2 at approximately 03/1830 UTC. Modeling indicated that this
eruption is likely to miss Earth or produce only a very minor
glancing blow on 08 Jul. The following M6.3/2b at 03/1859 UTC was
also associated with a tenflare (peak of 780 sfu) and a Type II
radio sweep (estimated velocity 387 km/s); however the resulting CME
was so close in time and source location to the M6.7 that its
structure was difficult to impossible to distinguish separately.
Lastly, an M1.4 at 05/1645 UTC was associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 959 km/s) and a resulting CME first
observed in LASCO C2 at 05/1648 UTC; modeling indicates that the CME
should pass well ahead of Earth’s orbit.
An M5.8 at 30/1257 UTC, an M1.1 at 01/1431 UTC, and a M1.8/sf at
01/2022 were also associated with tenflares (peaks of 110 sfu, 230
sfu, and 180 sfu, respectively), but no eruptions were detected in
available imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit; however, the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated (peak of 1.76 pfu at
04/0335 UTC) beginning late on 03 Jul and continuing through 04 Jul.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 28-30 Jun, with a peak flux of 5,690 pfu at 30/1315
UTC. Flux values were at low/normal to moderate levels on 01-04 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 29 Jun. An
isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions was
observed on 30 Jun-01 Jul, due to the arrival of CMEs that left the
Sun on 26-27 Jun. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated though
never got above 430 km/s. Bz was mostly northward, but Bt reached
eventually reached a max of 19 nT at 01/0124 UTC. The CME’s
passage was largely finished by the end of 01 Jul UTC day, and the
geomagnetic field activity was quiet throughout 02 Jul and into 03
Jul. At 03/1119 UTC, a CME shock was observed, most likely the X1.1
eruption from 30 Jun, followed by another enhancement at 02/2100
that could either be the main driver of the X1.1 CME or the CMEs
from 01-02 Jul. Solar wind speeds initially jumped to around 460
km/s on 03 Jul then gradually increased to around 640 km/s on 04
Jul. Bt followed a similar pattern, initially jumping to 11 nT on 03
Jul and then eventually increasing to a max of 24 nT on 04 Jul. Bz
was rather variable or northward throughout 03 Jul, but deflected
sharply southward at 04/0105 UTC, reaching a max deflection of -19
nT, which it then slowly rotated out of for the next 8 hours. G1
(Minor) to G3 (Strong) storming conditions were observed throughout
the entirety of 04 Jul, returning to unsettled to active levels on
05 Jul.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 July - 01 August 2026
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 06 Jul - 17 Jul as
Regions 4478, 4479, and 4480 rotate beyond the western limb on 05-06
Jul and no high-flaring regions are expected to return. Regions
4478, 4479, and 4480 are anticipated to return 18-20 Jul and
increase the chances for M-class activity for the remainder of the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
likely to reach high levels on 06-07 Jul, 11-13 Jul, and 24-27 Jul.
Increases in the electron flux are expected due to the anticipated
influence of several recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 07-08 Jul, 12-21 Jul, and 24-31 Jul. Active conditions are
likely on 06 Jul, 09-11 Jul, 22-23 Jul, and 01 Aug; other than 06
Jul, all enhanced conditions are due to the anticipated effects of
several recurrent CH HSSs.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
Lese vorherige Mail | Lese naechste Mail
| |
