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VA2OM > SOLAR 06.10.25 11:25l 74 Lines 3319 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 47512_VE2PKT
Read: GAST
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0ERF<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<K5DAT<
VE2PKT
Sent: 251006/0917Z 47512@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Oct 06 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 September - 05 October 2025
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 29 Sep-03 Oct, with a
total of twelve M-class flares (R1-Minor) observed. Region 4232
(N04, L=53, class/area=Dhi/310 on 03 Oct) produced five M-flares
throughout the week, including the largest of the period; an M3.6 at
29/0145 UTC. On 03 Oct, two slow-moving Earth-directed CMEs were
observed. The first CME was associated with an M1.5/2n flare at
03/0523 UTC from Region 4236 (N10, L=62, class/area=Ekc/320 on 04
Oct), and the second CME was associated with a filament eruption
from near the ESE limb at 03/1830 UTC. Both CMEs are expected to
arrive after midday on 07 Oct.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 29-30 Sep, and high levels on 01-05
Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29 Sep
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. A combination of CH HSS
influences and likely transient activity led to periods of G3
(Strong) storming on 30 Sep and 02 Oct, and periods of G2 (Moderate)
storming on 01 Oct. Positive polarity CH HSS influences prevailed
over 03-05 Oct, with geomagnetic field activity reaching G1 (Minor)
storm periods on 03 Oct, active conditions on 04 Oct, and quiet to
unsettled levels on 05 Oct.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 October - 01 November 2025
Solar activity is expected to be low with a varying chance for
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 06-08 Oct, 13-16 Oct, 21-24 Oct,
28-31 Oct, and 01 Nov. Normal to moderate levels are expected to
prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 06
Oct in response to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 07-08 Oct due to
waning positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated
arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are likely to result in periods
of G1 storming on 11 Oct, and active conditions on 12 Oct.
Additional negative polarity CH HSS influences are likely to produce
active conditions on 19 Oct, and G1 storming on 20 Oct. Periods of
active conditions are likely over 25-26 Oct due to negative polarity
CH HSS influences. Positive polarity CH HSS influences are
anticipated over 28-31 Oct, with active conditions likely on 28 Oct,
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm periods likely on 29 Oct, and G1
storming likely on 30 Oct. Periods of active conditions are likely
on 31 Oct as positive polarity CH HSS influences wane. Quiet and
quiet to unsettled levels are likely to prevail throughout the
remainder of the period.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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