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HP2DFA > NHC 22.10.26 11:42l 84 Lines 3794 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 5389_HP2DFA
Subj: NHC: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (22-Oct 04:15Z)
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<HP2DFA
Sent: 261022/0912Z 5389@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
325
AXNT20 KNHC 220910
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on <a href='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif'>0600 UT
0900 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 08N25W.
A surface trough is analyzed from 16N24W to 06N29W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N32W to 07N57W. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 11N to 15N between 21W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf and
the southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring south of 20N over the far southwest
Gulf near this trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of
the basin allowing for generally dry conditions. Gentle to
moderate NE winds persist across the basin, south of high pressure
centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over
the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the central and western Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United
States supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure
and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring
fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over the
eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will
spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through early next
week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the central
Caribbean, and over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 2-4 ft are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate NE
winds and 3-5 ft seas are in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a broad trough over the central and western
Caribbean will support light breezes and slight to moderate seas
west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE
winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W
early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Little
change is expected elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A trough reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba. Farther north,
Subtropical Storm Josephine is off New Jersey. While this is too
far north to have any impact on winds over the discussion area south
of 31N, N swell of 8 to 11 ft generated in part by Josephine is
moving into the region as far south as 27N west of 75W. Clusters
of showers and thunderstorms are active north of 20N and west of
45W, mainly near the trough and another trough reaching from
31N58W to 25N50W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 6-8 ft seas are
ongoing within 90 nm east of this trough. Gentle to moderate winds
and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over
the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas
along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is
expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale- force
over the waters north of 28N between 65W and 75W on Sun. Mariners
should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance
plans in place.$$ Christensen
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