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LU9DCE > NEWS 19.10.26 13:34l 270 Lines 9571 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25381_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-OCT
Path: DB0FFL<DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<VE2PKT<VE7ASS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261019/1130Z 25381@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON OCT 19 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON OCT 19 08:34:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON OCT 19 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON OCT 19 08:34:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AT MID-LEVELS, A LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. AT
THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND
DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES/KARSTENS.. 10/19/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BROAD AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE INSTANCES
OF STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN GIVEN STRONGER FLOW FIELDS ALOFT. AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH, BUOYANCY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE GUST THREAT, SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD THIS
OUTLOOK. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG THE CA COASTLINE, PROMOTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HERE AS
WELL.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/19/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 19, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE TRAVERSING THE
INTERIOR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, PROVOKING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CA
AND THE INTERIOR WEST, BENEATH STRONG, NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER,
THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY WILL RESIDE
IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN, WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST.
...LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN...
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN, LOW TO MID 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD BENEATH 6.5+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A 50-80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE MAY
MANIFEST AMID LARGE AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN
ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO, WARRANTING THE INTRODUCTION OF CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEY REGION...
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A 70+ KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB JET, AS WELL AS 7+
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STRONG,
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY CURVED, BUT VERY
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 40S F MAY LIMIT BUOYANCY
CONSIDERABLY, PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/19/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 19, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK
AND EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER, A MORE ZONAL, PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RELEGATED TO
THE NORTHERN CONUS, AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES POISED TO
TRAVERSE THIS FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL (ALBEIT ISOLATED) WILL BE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON DAY 4 (THURSDAY) AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
DAY 5 (FRIDAY). IN THE DAYS 4-5 PERIOD, ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, A BELT OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, ATOP
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD OVERLAP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT, AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY ML/AI GUIDANCE, SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WERE NOT INTRODUCED THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THIS REGION,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY VIA DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CONUS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF A TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST, WITH BROAD/WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OREGON, AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION TODAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 15-20 MPH (WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA), WHILE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOW 20S AND UPPER TEENS AMID
DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS. THE ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE.
..KARSTENS.. 10/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF THE WEST. DESPITE BREEZY ONSHORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(SUSTAINED NEAR 15-20 MPH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
CRITERIA ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS,
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS REGION, WITH PERHAPS
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY.
ELSEWHERE, FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS WELL AS BROAD/WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL.
..KARSTENS.. 10/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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