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LU9DCE > NEWS 05.07.26 21:03l 619 Lines 23350 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16990_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-JUL
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Sent: 260704/1045Z 16990@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
WW 453 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 040635Z - 041200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1235 AM UNTIL 600 AM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME CLUSTERING OF THESE STORMS IS POSSIBLE,
WITH THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE LINE REMAINING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF BURLINGTON CO TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY KS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24020.
...MOSIER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0453 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LAA TO
15 NW LIC.
..DEAN..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-125-040940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-040940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC057-087-145-040940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 1488
MD 1488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... FOR FAR NORTHEAST
CO INTO NORTHWEST KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...
VALID 040823Z - 041000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A SMALL
BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO AS OF 0815 UTC. THIS SMALL
CLUSTER HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING OBSERVED SEVERE GUSTS, AND MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE-WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES
INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS. EXTENSIVE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND MAY EVENTUALLY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY AND EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT OF THIS CLUSTER. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM-ADVECTION REGIME MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
..DEAN.. 07/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40040219 40010117 39900018 39370001 38969994 38680008
38510022 38590129 38750201 38880245 39270263 40040219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 1487
MD 1487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040730Z - 040930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE OUTFLOW SURGE HAS OCCURRED WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION NEAR DES MOINES, WHERE A 50 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED. THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE SHORT TERM, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED
BY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE INFLUENCE OF DECAYED CONVECTION
AND ATTENDANT LOW/MIDLEVEL DRYING APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST IA.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41629367 41789220 41439159 40759186 40599283 40699355
40879362 41309385 41439396 41629367
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 4, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
INTO MID ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC/ONTARIO. A MODEST BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW AROUND
30-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF NORTHERN PA
INTO NORTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND MORE MUTED DAYTIME HEATING/RECOVERY WITH
NORTHERN EXTENT. SOUTH OF THE MORNING PRECIPITATION, STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND WARMING IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
90S TO 100S F. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WV INTO VA/MD/NJ. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE GENERALLY WEAK, WITH BETTER SHEAR TO THE NORTH. NONETHELESS,
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND, ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS CAN GROW UPSCALE
AND DEVELOP STRONG COLD POOLS.
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS, BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. ONE OR MORE MCVS MAY DEVELOP AND DRIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD,
WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE EXACT REGION THAT THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR OF
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITHIN THIS REGION, WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH
INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AND GROW UPSCALE, WITH A
LIKELY MCS MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY THE EVENING AND AN INCREASE
IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/WESTERN NE. DEEPLY
MIXED PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
...MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO
VALLEY...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH DAMAGING
WIND/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN MORE
MESOSCALE CORRIDORS WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW RESIDES.
..THORNTON/MOORE.. 07/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 4, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE RIDGING IN THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES REMAINS RELATIVELY
SUPPRESSED, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME, A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE MERGING INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS/SOUTHEAST OF THE LABRADOR
SEA.
UPSTREAM, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, INCLUDING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS, IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING ACROSS AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. IT
APPEARS THAT FORCING WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT MODEST
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH MANITOBA.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TRAILING PERTURBATION, IT APPEARS THAT
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING, ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM, IT APPEARS THAT WEAK TROUGHING,
LIKELY WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
PERTURBATIONS, WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS TROUGHING, SEASONABLY HIGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY AGAIN BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC FORCING,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY
SUB-SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS WITH RATHER LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS
EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THIS CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN SIZABLE
SPREAD EVIDENT IN CONVECTION ALLOWING AND RELATED GUIDANCE.
...MID ATLANTIC...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE GENERAL CHANGE FROM PRIOR MODEL OUTPUT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD REMAIN FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE FEATURES COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH THERE APPEARS A BETTER SIGNAL IN LATEST GUIDANCE
FOR ACTIVITY TO FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH, AT LEAST INITIALLY, BEFORE PERHAPS PROPAGATING ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REMNANT FRONT TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. AIDED BY A
LINGERING MODEST, BUT WEAKENING, BELT OF CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
WESTERLY FLOW, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS COULD
ORGANIZE AND BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS...
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS EVEN GREATER THAN SUGGESTED IN PRIOR MODEL RUNS,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THERE WILL BECOME A WELL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY, SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY LATE
AFTERNOON, TO FOCUS STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO THE RATON
MESA/RIDGE VICINITY APPEARS TO OFFER THE MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL THAT ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER WHILE
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO A RESIDUAL DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
THERE REMAINS A MIXED SIGNAL WITHIN MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING
POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER SUPPORT LIKELY TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER, THE POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW, BUT LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED, AT LEAST FOR NOW.
..KERR.. 07/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 4, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, RIDGING MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
PROMINENT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY TEND
TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AS FAR NORTH AS THE EASTERN
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER, IN THE WAKE OF A NOTABLE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT ONE VIGOROUS IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING,
AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS EVOLVING REGIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS GENERALLY LOW
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA
...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE VICINITY OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGHING, COINCIDENT WITH SOUTHEASTWARD SUPPRESSION OF
WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR, COULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSING A RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. PRECEDING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLING IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER, AIDED BY UPDRAFT INFLOW OF MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..KERR.. 07/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 4, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BASED ON THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE MID- AND
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD MAY LEAD TO
THE EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT HIGH BECOMING CENTERED
NEAR OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SURROUNDING RIDGING MAY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH GREAT PLAINS, AS FAR NORTH AS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THAT COULD INCLUDE
EVOLVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, MUCH AS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE IN PRECEDING DAYS
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
IF ANY, WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY SUB-SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS YET
TO EVOLVE, AND WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHWEST
MEXICO IN EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN VERY
DRY, BUT RELATIVELY BENIGN, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/GREAT
BASIN REGION WHERE FUELS REMAIN THE DRIEST. HOWEVER, MORE FOCUSED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EMERGE WITHIN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
...CASCADES...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE IS NOTED IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STRONGER LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS 15-20 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE
MORE PROMINENT GAPS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF 20-25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED, RECENT
FIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS FUELS ARE ADEQUATELY RECEPTIVE TO SUPPORT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
...COLORADO...
THE 00 UTC GJT SOUNDING FROM WESTERN CO SAMPLED VERY STEEP (9.4
C/KM) MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY DESPITE A PWAT VALUE OF ONLY 0.35 INCHES. THIS
AIR MASS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT POCKETS OF ADEQUATE MUCAPE FOR WEAK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES, UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE WHERE VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS WERE MAINTAINED.
..MOORE.. 07/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
GREATEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MORE ISOLATED
CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN OR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY. A SUBTLE INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT/COOLING
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN CA INTO
SOUTHEAST OR AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHWEST NV. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY
ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF WETTING RAINFALL, BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER CORES. BASED
ON INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICES, FUELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
GENERALLY RECEPTIVE AND SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
...EASTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
A MODEST INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SOME RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR VERY WEAK CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. VERY WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL MOST LIKELY BE TIED TO OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WITHIN THE GILA REGION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIMITED BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC REGIME AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SIGNAL IN CAM GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A RECEPTIVE FUEL LANDSCAPE IS HIGHLIGHTED.
..MOORE.. 07/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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