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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.04.24 10:34l 570 Lines 16125 Bytes #46 (0) @ WW
BID : 8415_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-APR24
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Sent: 240419/0701Z 8415@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130
WW 130 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 190210Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
CAPABLE OF MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF FLIPPIN AR TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON TN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 128...WW 129...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129
WW 129 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 182335Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, REACHING SOUTHWEST INDIANA/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF PADUCAH KY TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TERRE HAUTE IN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW
127...WW 128...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
WW 128 SEVERE TSTM TX 182210Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, AND POSSIBLY INTO ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF NORTH/NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF PARIS TX TO 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126
WW 126 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 182035Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ROBUST BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
GUSTS FROM 45 TO 65 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF DE QUEEN AR TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE AR. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...MOSIER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0130 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW RUE
TO 20 ESE FLP TO 35 W POF.
..DEAN..04/19/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-023-029-031-037-045-055-063-065-067-075-085-093-105-111-
117-119-121-129-135-137-141-145-147-190440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CROSS FAULKNER
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI PERRY POINSETT
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
MOC069-155-190440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
TNC005-017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-190440-
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0129 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FAM
TO 30 SSE MVN TO 40 ENE EVV TO 15 NNW IND.
..DEAN..04/19/24
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 129
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-190440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WILLIAMSON
INC005-013-019-025-043-061-071-079-093-117-123-143-147-163-173-
175-190440-
I PERRY SCOTT
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
WASHINGTON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0128 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BWD TO
35 W CLL.
..WEINMAN..04/19/24
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-053-171-259-265-267-299-319-411-491-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO BURNET GILLESPIE
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LLANO MASON SAN SABA
WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0127 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MCB TO
35 ESE GWO.
..THORNTON..04/19/24
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC069-075-079-099-101-103-121-123-159-190140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
RANKIN SCOTT WINSTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0126 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 126
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HOT TO
35 SE FSM TO 40 NW RUE TO 15 SSW FLP.
..DEAN..04/19/24
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 126
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC071-083-115-149-190440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LOGAN POPE
YELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0125 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S UMN TO
10 NNE STL TO 45 WSW SPI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
..THORNTON..04/18/24
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-021-025-027-047-049-051-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-
117-119-121-127-133-135-137-145-151-153-157-163-165-167-171-173-
181-185-189-191-193-199-190040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CHRISTIAN
CLAY CLINTON EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SALINE SANGAMON SCOTT
SHELBY UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
MOC017-023-031-035-043-055-065-067-091-093-099-123-149-153-157-
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 19 03:29:04 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 19 03:29:04 UTC 2024.
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SPC APR 19, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS EARLY TONIGHT. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
...01Z UPDATE...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EJECTING EAST ACROSS
IL. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO EASTERN OH BY SUNRISE.
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE
ONGOING MCS OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST IL INTO SOUTHERN IN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS MCS IS CURRENTLY SEVERE AND HAS PRODUCED A VARIETY OF WIND/HAIL
REPORTS ACROSS MO/WESTERN IL. CURRENT THINKING IS WIND/HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE, AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER BUOYANCY.
SURGING COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO NORTHWEST AR, ARCING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHWEST TX.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THIS WIND
SHIFT, BUT ISOLATED ROBUST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY, JUST NORTH OF LLANO. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY
YET ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DUE
IN LARGE PART TO NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 04/19/2024
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