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LU9DCE > SOLAR 05.02.20 06:22l 70 Lines 2722 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8533_LU9DCE
Read: GAST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 05 02
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<GB7YEW<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200205/0401Z 8533@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 04/1912Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 04/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 654 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (06 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 070
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-009/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/40/30
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