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LU9DCE > SOLAR 25.01.20 07:00l 70 Lines 2665 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7823_LU9DCE
Read: GAST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 25 01
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200125/0401Z 7823@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 23/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 071
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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Brady's First Law of Problem Solving:
When confronted by a difficult problem, you can solve it more
easily by reducing it to the question, "How would the Lone Ranger have
handled this?"
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