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LU9DCE > SOLAR 23.01.20 07:04l 72 Lines 2847 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 23 01
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Sent: 200123/0401Z 7749@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Jan 22 2240 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 22/1038Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/0729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 072
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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