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LU9DCE > NEWS 18.10.26 14:26l 257 Lines 8908 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25286_LU9DCE
Read: GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-OCT
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<GB7BED<K1AJD<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261018/1130Z 25286@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN OCT 18 08:00:03 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN OCT 18 08:00:03 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN OCT 18 08:00:03 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN OCT 18 08:00:03 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST IN THE U.S. TODAY OR TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE NATION, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NO SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 10/18/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW (MONDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OFF OF THE EAST
COAST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS TOMORROW (MONDAY). SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST LOCALES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FL KEYS GIVEN ADEQUATE SURFACE
HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS, WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVERSPREADS MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/18/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 18, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MULTIPLE LOCALES. PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH,
A 500 MB WIND MAXIMUM ACCOMPANYING MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
WILL OVERSPREAD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF CA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD A MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER, ENCOURAGING LIGHTNING FLASHES
ALONG THE CA SHORELINE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/18/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 18, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE TRAVERSING THE INTERIOR WEST
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE INTERIOR
WEST, MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE STRONG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH, DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
FAVORABLE OVERLAPS WITH STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUCH SETUPS
WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, AS ALSO
INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE ML/AI CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OFF OF THE EAST COAST
TODAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A
SECOND AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS, AND
EAST WILL LARGELY TEMPER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
TODAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15-25% RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OR, AND
NORTHWESTERN NV, WHERE ERCS ARE NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILES. CONFIDENCE IN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF OVERLAP OF ELEVATED
WIND/RH CRITERIA REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS, BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE SHOULD AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS OVERLAP RH BELOW 20%.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PRECEDING A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND
SEPARATELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING PARTS OF GA,
SC, AND AL, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. POOR TO MARGINAL FUELS, RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THESE AREAS, AND BORDERLINE WIND/RH CONDITIONS (10-15 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 20-25% MINIMUM DAYTIME RH ACROSS THE
PLAINS) ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THESE REGIONS, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 10/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE ON D2/MONDAY AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERS
OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL LARGELY MITIGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THIS REGION, HOWEVER. FARTHER WEST,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OREGON, AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH (WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA) AMID MINIMUM
DAYTIME RH OF ~20% (LOCALLY LOWER) ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A REGION WHERE ERCS ARE AROUND THE
80-90TH PERCENTILES.
..CHALMERS.. 10/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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