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LU9DCE > NEWS 16.10.26 14:33l 328 Lines 13127 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25105_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-OCT
Path: DB0FFL<CS5NRA<CQ0PAX<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<VE3TOK<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261016/1130Z 25105@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 16 07:56:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 16 07:56:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 16 07:56:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 16 07:56:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND-DAMAGE AND LOCALIZED BRIEF-TORNADO POTENTIAL
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
A DEEP, POSITIVE-TILT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS IT SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, SEASONABLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.
VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONSTRAIN MLCAPE MAGNITUDES
TO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, AND RESULT IN RATHER LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN RISE TO
NEAR/ABOVE 70 F, RELATIVELY ROBUST BUOYANCY NEAR/BELOW 500 MB
(CHARACTERIZED BY LIFTED INDICES IN THE -4 TO -6 C RANGE) WILL
DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BUOYANCY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR.
35-45 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH ANY SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST CONVECTION.
GENERALLY FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES, THOUGH 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. A
LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WV/WESTERN PA INTO SOUTHERN NY, WITH INITIAL FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN PA, NJ, AND VICINITY. RATHER STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF-TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
QLCS CIRCULATIONS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
SOME WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS EVENING, THOUGH MARINE-INFLUENCED LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CONSTRAIN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE THREAT.
..DEAN/CHALMERS.. 10/16/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW (SATURDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW
(SATURDAY). A RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST
LOCALES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY, PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT OF A PRECEDING MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SCANT BUOYANCY, DRIVEN BY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, WILL ACCOMPANY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN, WHERE ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/16/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 16, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A WEAK 500 MB
CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE
SURFACE TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. DESPITE THIS
SURFACE TROUGHING, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS MOIST TRAJECTORIES
ACROSS THE GULF ORIENTED AWAY FROM THE U.S. SHORELINE, SUGGESTING
THAT A STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS. THEREFORE,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HINDERED OVER MOST LOCALES. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERN FL INTO THE KEYS, WHERE LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A POST-COLD-FRONTAL AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/16/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 16, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MEANDERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, THE WEST COAST UPPER
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES, ENCOURAGING SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (ALBEIT
MODEST) ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DAYS 6-7 (NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY). HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE OVERLAP OF MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEXT
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH CALIBRATED ML/AI GUIDANCE ONLY HINTING AT A
SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THEREFORE, SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA
COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (1044
MB PER THE 03 UTC WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS) MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY, OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. TO THE EAST, A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. STRONG POST-FRONTAL FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX TODAY.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP-LAYER
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AND ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 20-30 MPH SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-60
MPH (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AND EXPOSED ELEVATED
AREAS) IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN L.A, VENTURA, AND SOUTHEASTERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, WITH A PEAK DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO NEAR 15%
(LOCALLY LOWER), THIS WILL FAVOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHERE RH REDUCTIONS TO 15% AND
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
...SIERRA NEVADA, SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE NORTH BAY AREA...
RESIDUAL EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
(LOCALLY UP TO 20 MPH) ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
OBSERVED AS OF 0600 UTC, WITH RH VALUES NOTED TO RANGE FROM 15-25%
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RH VALUES SHOULD FURTHER
DECREASE TO NEAR 10% TODAY. COUPLED WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS AND THE
BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS, THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15% WILL ALSO BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY,
NAPA VALLEY, AND NORTH BAY AREAS TODAY.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE RESULTANT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL FAVOR
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX WITHIN THE DRY, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WITH RH REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS ~25% OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS UP TO
THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES), ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RH WILL
IMPROVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY A MINOR SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED AREA WAS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
..CHALMERS.. 10/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON D2/SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FOSTER RESIDUAL OFFSHORE
FLOW AND LINGERING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, HELPING TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAINED POSITIONED WEST OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA, WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN RESIDUAL EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW INTO D2/SATURDAY. GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
(LOCALLY GREATER) ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MAGNITUDES
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN
AROUND 15-20% DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SIMI VALLEY AND SIERRA MADRE/SAN RAFAEL RANGES.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
A DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE
NORTH. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND MINIMUM DAYTIME RH
VALUES AROUND 25% ARE EXPECTED ATOP DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS
COMMONLY ABOVE THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, FOSTERING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHEASTERN AR AND MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MS.
..CHALMERS.. 10/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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