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LU9DCE > NEWS 31.08.26 19:33l 371 Lines 15257 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21150_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-AUG
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260831/1615Z 21150@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 31 08:50:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 31 08:50:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON AUG 31 08:50:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON AUG 31 08:50:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC AUG 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY/GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT BASIN.
...EASTERN COLORADO/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL
WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, A MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST NEAR
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM IOWA INTO
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK, BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER AREAS SUCH AS WISCONSIN. CONDITIONALLY, HAIL OVER 1.00" WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
A GREATER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
INFLUENCED BY A NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STRONG
HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE, WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS, AS STORMS POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE INTO
NEBRASKA. BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT BASIN...
A NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL
INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED,
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEVADA, SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR, BUT
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS ARE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD REGIONALLY.
...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/GULF COAST...
REFERENCE NHC FOR THE LATEST DETAILS REGARDING A DISTURBANCE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RELATED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MEANINGFUL
NEAR-SHORE/INLAND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
..GUYER/WENDT.. 08/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF
NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TOMORROW (TUESDAY). MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ALL ALONG THE RIDGE. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MULTIPLE
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES, PRECEDED BY SEASONABLY COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ATOP RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL PROMOTE STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
GREAT LAKES.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY,
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT BENEATH THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST TWO IMPULSES MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE FIRST AND
MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO PROMOTE SPARSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. BY AFTERNOON, 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, RESULTING IN
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AMID 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW APPRECIABLY CURVED, SIZEABLE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. AS SUCH, A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
LATER OVERNIGHT, THE APPROACH OF A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
IS EXPECTED. AS THIS OCCURS, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRAVERSE THE UPPER RIDGE, MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING, THE RICH
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT STABILIZATION TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
STRONGER STORMS PERSIST, A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...
ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BY EVENING, A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT BECOMES SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NE TO CENTRAL WI. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY REACH UP TO THE
MID 70S F ALONG PORTIONS OF THIS WARM FRONT, YIELDING OVER 3000 J/KG
MLCAPE OVER SEVERAL LOCALES GIVEN 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING THIS BOUNDARY. A BELT OF 50+ KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500
MB FLOW MAY ALSO OVERLAP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE, SUPPORTING 40-50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODESTLY CURVED/ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS.
GIVEN THE STRONG OVERLAPPING BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ANY
STORM THAT CAN MATURE AND BECOME SUSTAINED MAY BECOME MULTICELLULAR
OR SUPERCELLULAR, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AT THE
MOMENT, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE, SINCE UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ONLY GRAZE THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE, AND THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IMPULSE SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, DESPITE THE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT CATEGORY
1/MARGINAL RISK.
... SOUTHERN TX/LA...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ALONG THE LA COASTLINE (PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILS). THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINES THROUGH TUESDAY.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE WEAK, PRECLUDING TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 31, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES AND OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE WHILE IT PASSES OVER
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
...NORTHWEST PA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS STRONG) WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PA
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z WEDNESDAY).
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST MODEST INSOLATION, RESULTING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. SURFACE HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (E.G. LOW
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) WILL RESULT IN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE GIVEN
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVERSPREADING EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
DELMARVA WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND 35-45
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
DEPICT APPRECIABLY LARGE AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WITH OVER 200 M2/S2
0-3 KM SRH. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
STORM MODE, WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE PRECEDED BY 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND YIELD 2000+
J/KG MLCAPE AMID 35+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 31, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEK BEFORE
RETROGRADING TO THE PLAINS STATES AND FURTHER AMPLIFYING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO AMPLIFY ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR WEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST DAYS 4-5 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) AS A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSE THE
MID ATLANTIC, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
...DAYS 4-6 (THURSDAY-SATURDAY) - MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL RESULT IN A FARTHER SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES, WHICH WILL PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO BE MODULATED FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONES FROM PRIOR ROUNDS OF STORMS. ON
THURSDAY, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
SOMEWHERE AROUND DELMARVA OR POINTS IMMEDIATELY WEST. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F BENEATH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN OVER 30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED, MULTICELLS, SUPERCELLS, AND
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT.
FOR DAY 5 (FRIDAY), THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER, ALLOWING
FOR A SURFACE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUPPORTING
ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
SOME LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
DAY 6/SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION, AS
INDICATED BY SOME ML/AI GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY ON THE
TIMING OF DETAILS (I.E. BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES AND OVERLAPPING
CORRIDORS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) IS TOO LOW FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
...DAY 4 (THURSDAY) - UPPER MIDWEST...
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHERE
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE
WARM FRONT, ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY MANIFEST TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. WHILE CALIBRATED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RAMPING UP SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA, SYNOPTIC FEATURES (SUCH AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE) DO NOT APPEAR STRONGLY EVIDENT IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, PRECLUDING THE ADDITION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA
WILL PROMOTE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. MODESTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH.
AFTERNOON RH OF 15-20% CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
..WENDT.. 08/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL PIVOT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
SIMILAR TO MONDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGER THAN ON MONDAY, HOWEVER. WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 MPH WITH
LOCALIZED 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE LATE TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL TEND TO MITIGATE A GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT. RH WILL AGAIN
FALL TO 15-20%. VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..WENDT.. 08/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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