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LU9DCE > NEWS 28.06.26 13:33l 610 Lines 21934 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-JUN
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410
WW 410 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 280425Z - 281200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING BOW ECHO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOW, WITH A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A
BRIEF LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOW, RESULTING IN A
LINGERING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IS LARGE TO ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF AINSWORTH NE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS SD.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...WW 409...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...MOSIER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0410 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ONL
TO 40 WNW YKN TO 25 SSE MHE TO 10 E MHE TO 20 N MHE TO 10 E HON.
..JEWELL..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC009-027-061-067-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-
280940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HANSON
HUTCHINSON LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA
MOODY SANBORN TURNER
UNION YANKTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0409 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 409
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 409
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-021-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-055-069-075-079-083-
093-101-103-280540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH DICKEY
EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
STUTSMAN WARD WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 406 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0406 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25
ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC031-161-280540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHERRY SHERIDAN
SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES
JACKSON JONES MELLETTE
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 1364
MD 1364 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410...
VALID 280737Z - 280930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE CELLS CURRENTLY EXIST NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER, AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. EARLIER,
SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 60 KT WERE REPORTED, THOUGH MORE RECENT
MEASUREMENTS INDICATE SOMEWHAT LESSER PEAK GUSTS CLOSER TO 50 KT
INTO THE WAGNER AREA.
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS STORM COMPLEX, DRIVEN BY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST ACROSS SD, AND PERHAPS INTO
MN AND IA AN ELEVATED INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.
..JEWELL.. 06/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43719813 43969700 44179566 43949532 43449511 43149513
42889528 42789617 42799696 42869823 43299808 43719813
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
VICINITY, AND MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...DAKOTAS TO IA/WI THROUGH TONIGHT...
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE OCCLUDES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST SK/SOUTHEAST AB
BORDER, A BELT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT WILL
BE MAINTAINED FROM CO TO THE DAKOTAS, EAST OF THE BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. A SEPARATE LEE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE/SD OVERNIGHT. A STORM CLUSTER
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA BORDER AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. THESE MORNING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/BUOYANCY
GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
STORMS, A SURFACE WARM FRONT DEMARCATING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 70S WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NORTHWARD SLOWLY ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN MN/WI. WEST OF THE MORNING STORMS, A WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OBSERVED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ACT
TO CAP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE BOTH IN QUESTION GIVEN WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LEE CYCLONE INTO SD. WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
RICHER MOISTURE AND ASCENT PRECEDING THE SURFACE CYCLONE (AND SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN
ND. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL (2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND OCCASIONAL
SEVERE GUSTS.
FARTHER EAST, A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS WI BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND LARGE CAPE WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS WITH LARGELY ELEVATED STORMS
TONIGHT.
...CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AN MCV NOW OVER KY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CLOUD
BREAKS, ALONG WITH ~25 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH STORM CLUSTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE
WILL ALLOW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK, BUT INVERTED-V
PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH.
..THOMPSON/CHALMERS.. 06/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR.
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN WITHIN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
TIME. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN A COLD FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE IN THE MIDWEST/EAST WITH MODEST
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE EXPECTED IN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA.
...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN ACROSS THESE REGIONS. AT LEAST
WEAK CONVECTION APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING. HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS MARGINALLY INCREASED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE LOW
MIGRATING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE RED RIVER. EVEN SO, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN IF AND HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST RELATIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE, AND LOCALLY STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND AREAS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
ARE HIGHLY DISPARATE. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND TRACK THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG THE BUOYANCY GRADIENT. THIS
PARTICULAR SCENARIO HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG WITH THE
DEPICTION OF A MORE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH. SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE RRFS WOULD SUGGEST A SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD OCCUR
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
THOUGH THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT DIFFERS, THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TREND IN RECENT GUIDANCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR DURING
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WINDOW FOR STORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED, BUT IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT IT OCCURS AFTER DARK WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE, BUT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MEAN A QUICK
TRANSITION INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST GIVEN
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET.
..WENDT.. 06/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 28, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
THOUGH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING INTO CANADA, A
REMNANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA. STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. WHERE CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE ON THE MESOSCALE, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT AN MCS COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THE PREFERRED
CORRIDOR FOR THAT WILL BE AT THIS TIME.
...NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN AROUND
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR.
...NORTHEAST...
GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE OCCURRING
IN CANADA AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY, SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
..WENDT.. 06/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 28, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FROM
MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. IN
THE EAST, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST. DURING THE WEEKEND, MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
BROADEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE LACK OF MORE NOTABLE MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES DECREASE PREDICTABILITY WITH REGARD TO WHERE SEVERE
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THAT BEING SAID, SUBTLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY WITHIN PARTS OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PLACING
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY, WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. CONCURRENTLY, AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLORADO PLATEAU. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF
ENHANCED DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TODAY.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25+ MPH
(WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH POSSIBLE) AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-15%
IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH, WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
WITH THIS MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXACERBATING
FUEL DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS (ERCS NOTED IN THE 80-95+ PERCENTILES)
AND THE ANTICIPATION FOR POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
(RHS NOTED TO BE LINGERING AT OR BELOW 15-25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS OF 0530 UTC), SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND COLORADO PLATEAU. A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OVERLAP LOW RH
OF 10-20%. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DRAWN AREAS WITH
THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGHING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TONIGHT. FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SOME RH RECOVERY AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED (WITH A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 10-20
MPH WINDS POSSIBLE).
..CHALMERS.. 06/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D2/MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED, MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE. A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS AND LINGERING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW,
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AMID VERY
LOW RH VALUES OF 10-15%. SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT DRY, WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE FUEL DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS
(WITH ERCS IN THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION). THIS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA, EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN
COLORADO, WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE TO
REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
..CHALMERS.. 06/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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