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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.05.25 10:34l 430 Lines 12402 Bytes #46 (0) @ WW
BID : 1848_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-MAY25
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VE2PKT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250501/0730Z 1848@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202
WW 202 SEVERE TSTM TX 010050Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 750 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY SEVERE GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING, FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
EAST TEXAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
TEMPLE TX TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...WW 199...WW
200...WW 201...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
WW 201 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 010010Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE WATCH AREA THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE THUNDERSTORM
BAND.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...WW 199...WW 200...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0202 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TPL
TO 45 S CRS TO 20 SW TYR.
..WEINMAN..05/01/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-225-289-293-313-331-347-
395-405-419-455-471-477-010340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL
BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE
FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES
HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE
MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES
ROBERTSON SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0201 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E GLH TO
30 NW MEM TO 35 WNW POF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
..WEINMAN..05/01/25
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-035-055-093-010340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRITTENDEN GREENE
MISSISSIPPI
MSC027-033-107-119-133-135-137-143-010340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO PANOLA
QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TUNICA
MOC023-069-143-155-207-010340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 200 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0200 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF
TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH.
..WEINMAN..05/01/25
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083-
101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
GREENE JASPER JERSEY
LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY
INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY
DECATUR GREENE JACKSON
JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE
OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 199 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0199 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLH
TO 45 SE BVX.
..WEINMAN..05/01/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-041-095-010240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS DESHA MONROE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 198 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0198 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT
TO 35 NW TYR.
..WEINMAN..04/30/25
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-139-010040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON
LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER
SABINE UNION WEBSTER
TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313-
331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 1 03:31:05 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 1 03:31:05 UTC 2025.
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SPC MAY 1, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN
MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE
INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
MID SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
A NOTABLE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT,
DOWNSTREAM OF SIMILAR AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THE LEAD PERTURBATION HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THE PAST DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, WHICH HAS SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED A FOCUS FOR
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE
SLOWING OR GRADUALLY STALLING SOUTH OF LONGVIEW AND TEMPLE TX, 3-4+
MB 2-HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW EVIDENT IN 00Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT LA, EL DORADO AND
LITTLE ROCK AR VICINITIES, WITH MORE MODEST FALLS (1-1.5 MB
2-HOURLY) AT MEMPHIS TN AND WALNUT RIDGE AR. BASED ON THIS, IT
APPEARS THAT THE GUST FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS IT DOES, IT MAY CONTINUE
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS, BUT LESS UNSTABLE UPDRAFT INFLOW PROBABLY WILL GRADUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A MODEST SURFACE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS
OF FORMING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH, ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. AS THIS FEATURE MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT, MODELS INDICATE THAT A BELT OF 30-35+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 850 MB, NOW EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH, WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND
SHEAR, ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT,
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST LOUIS TOWARD THE CINCINNATI AREA, IS NOT
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AND
PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZES WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING, AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH.
ACROSS TEXAS, WEAKENING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS BY LATE EVENING,
AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..KERR.. 05/01/2025
READ MORE
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